Secret Assassin: Round 8

[Mars]

you know humans CAN think too... though most dont like to..

Then why haven't you thought of using an ACTUAL table or format in your mathmatical posts instead of spray painting random fucking numbers everywhere

[NinjaMirage]

Thinking is one thing Knowledge is another- if i know how to i would.
even better would be to skip trying to explain it and write the code for it-
but i cant do that either.
Although i'm not sure why you're so pissed??

[Shivraj]

1st there is a way to let others know your not the assassin but i'm not giving away that strategy second. the assassins have a 2 out of 5 chance to undo the info the ambu gathered by either killing him or the one he investigated. and i should say no one votes until the ambu. insuring at least one assassin is dead but that will put a target on your head. It will always be a game of chance but like 21 there is a way of reducing the risks.
this method has the greatest chance of success.
If you look at the info the ambu gains by the end of the day phase of the second day there are only 3 outcomes.

1 he found no assassins 2 shinobi
2 he found 1 assassin and 1 shinobi
3 he found both assassins.

if 1-then he controls half the field. and a 2 in 3 chance to pick an assassin
      If he pics wrong then the ambu dies next turn and the other 2 know how
      the assassins are but as the numbers are tied the assassins win but its only a 33%
      chance of loosing
   2  then he tells the shinobi he knows to vote for the assassin
   3  he lets everyone else know how they are. and makes the vote.

this does require the shinobi to not randomly guess but to wait on the ambu.
If the assassins try and imitate the ambus role in this they instantly give away that there the assassin.
 

how do you know that the anbu is the anbu and not the assassin huh?

IF the assassin kills the anbu, how will the assassin UNDO the info? ANBU investigates during the day and posts it in the day phase like you got me, I couldn't undo it even though everyone killed you.

Again, what if the assassins act like the ANBU? The shinobi have NO way of knowing, especially if the assassin is good at acting.

If everyone waits for the ANBU, then most of the times, shinobi will lose.

2 in 3 chance? wtf? won't always be 2 in 3, maybe the assassins kill one of the shinobi anbu investigated? 5 shinobi - 1 that wasn't investigated = 4 + 2 assassins - 1 shinobi that assassins killed(and was investigated) = 5 players the ANBU can vote for
shouldn't that be a 2 in 5 chance in such a case?

maybe he will lay low and not point any fingers until he finds an assassin, let's say he does on day phase 3, BUT the assassins have killed one more dude, so that's 2 assassins 2 shinobi and 1 ANBU, the ANBU votes assassin, 1 assassin 2 shinobi 1 anbu, anbu gets killed, now, this can go anyway, so yeah, won't always be 2 in 3 chance

How do they know who the assassins are? they don't, he can vote for 5 people in the no. 1 scenario you gave, he picks a shinobi let's say, not willingly ofc, everyone votes the shinobi, he dies, then the assassins kill the anbu, there are still 2 shinobi and 2 assassins left, the shinobi don't know who the assassins are, why? Because it can be anyone if the anbu couldn't help them, The game is over, the assassins win cause the number of shinobi is the same as the number of assassins

ofc, it can go better though.

no one can predict human behavior UNLESS they are trained to do so, which none of us are, sadly, atleast I think so.

Too lazy to go over your other posts.

BTW, it's ANBU no AMBU

Any situation can go anyway, human behavior is strange, you can't tell what will happen, so stop trying to win using some preset algorithm you made, and start improvising with the situation. Do NOT assume anything, if it's a strategy to reveal you're not an assassin, an assassin can come up with it too, keep that in mind.

[NinjaMirage]

as long as the shinobi dont kill anyone in the day phase for the first 2 turns until the "ambu" votse on the second turn. then the ambus chances of picking the assassin at random is 2-3 or better. this is math not human behavior. i will give away my strategy for identifying yourself as ambu if you want but it will make the game unplayable.

[Shivraj]

as long as the shinobi dont kill anyone in the day phase for the first 2 turns until the "ambu" votse on the second turn. then the ambus chances of picking the assassin at random is 2-3 this is math not human behavior. i will give away my strategy for identifying yourself as ambu if you want but it will make the game unplayable.

how is it 2 out of 3? I'd love to see your math on that, if two shinobi are killed, and two are investigated, then it will be 2 out of 3, but if the assassins kill one of the shinobi that was investigated? that leaves us with 1 shinobi that was investigated, which means that out of the 4 shinobi, 1 is innocent for the ANBU out of the 6 other players, making it 4(shinobi) + 2 (assassins) - 1 (innocent shinobi for ANBU) = 5, and picking an assassin out of the total 6 players, is a 2 out of 5 chance, why? because there are 2 assassins in the 5 players that the ANBU doesn't know anything about.

It will not always be a 2 out of 3 chance, but a 2 out of 3 chance CAN occur.

and that's assuming no one votes for the first day phase

[Mars]

Orrr we could just play normally and have fun?

[NinjaMirage]

as long as the shinobi dont kill anyone in the day phase for the first 2 turns until the "ambu" votse on the second turn. then the ambus chances of picking the assassin at random is 2-3 this is math not human behavior. i will give away my strategy for identifying yourself as ambu if you want but it will make the game unplayable.

how is it 2 out of 3? I'd love to see your math on that, if two shinobi are killed, and two are investigated, then it will be 2 out of 3, but if the assassins kill one of the shinobi that was investigated? that leaves us with 1 shinobi that was investigated, which means that out of the 4 shinobi, 1 is innocent for the ANBU out of the 6 other players, making it 4(shinobi) + 2 (assassins) - 1 (innocent shinobi for ANBU) = 5, and picking an assassin out of the total 6 players, is a 2 out of 5 chance, why? because there are 2 assassins in the 5 players that the ANBU doesn't know anything about, the ANBU investigates another player which turns out to be a shinobi, now it's a 2 out of 4 chance.

It will not always be a 2 out of 3 chance, but a 2 out of 3 chance CAN occur. The Anbu investigates two shinobi, the assassins kill one of the non investigated shinobi 5 - 3 = 2, the ANBU investigates another one, then there's 4 people not investigated/killed, and the anbu knows that s/he's anbu, making it 3 people not investigated, so there's a 2 out of 3 chance.

and that's assuming no one votes for the first two day phases.

1st let's look at the goal of the assassins the idea is that they kill the anbu early you agree
This is obvious. if they can do this there odds go way up to win,.

So the shinobis job should be to protect the anbu. but all they can do is sit there so there numbers is the only protection they can provide. on the day 1 in a 8 player game the odds of voting  another shinobi at random is 5-7 and only 2-7 for the assassins. with those odds by voting on the first turn you are almost guaranteed to vote a shinobi or worse the anbu. these odds are for shinobi. the ambu has more info now though he knows a shinobi most likely  or a  assassin if he was lucky like i was this game. now he know 1 of 2 things either he knows an assassin  or he knows one is not this is just as important as knowing the assassin. so at the end of the day 1 the anbu has this set of info if you look at from the point of how could be an assassin.
                                 shinobi/ assassin                    shinobi/ assassin
      of he got a shinobi    3     /    2              or             4   /      1

do you agree this is the info everyone has at the end of day 1 before voting.

[json243]

Dude Cm just chill its a game and its ANBU NOT AMBU

[NinjaMirage]

Thats fine with me ill just pm shivraj sense he is interested.

[Manuster]

Sooooooooo is this still a thing? Or nah?

Kek. This game is very similar to Town Of Salem. I'll provide some links to ToS, great game in my opinion.

Gameplay:
https://www.blankmediagames.com/gameplay/

Roles:
https://www.blankmediagames.com/roles/

Play:
http://www.blankmediagames.com/TownOfSalem/

[Mars]

A few members play that game anyway. I think we should start secret assassin up again though, anyone willing to host?

[Sanji]

A few members play that game anyway. I think we should start secret assassin up again though, anyone willing to host?

will,that will be good ^^